Emirates Airline is mapping out its 20-year growth strategy with a huge fleet and network expansion, and planning for an eventual move from Dubai International Airport to Dubai World Central. Adnan Kazim, Chief Commercial Officer at the carrier, discusses its thinking with Mark Pilling
A record-breaking aircraft order from home carrier Emirates at the Dubai Airshow is as predictable as the terrible rush hour traffic in this flourishing megacity.
The 2023 event, which took place in mid-November, was true to form: Emirates opened the biennial aviation festival with an eye-watering US$52 billion order for 95 widebody jets, taking its total orderbook to 295 aircraft.
Boeing was the main beneficiary, its 777X twinjet gaining 90 orders. This gave the much-delayed programme, with the aircraft several years behind its expected in-service date, a major boost.
During the deal signing, His Highness Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum, Chairman and Chief Executive of Emirates Airline and Group, explained the rationale of its upped 777X order (the carrier now has 205 on order). “From day 1, Emirates’ business model has been to operate modern and efficient widebody aircraft capable of carrying large numbers of travellers comfortably and safely, over long distances to and via Dubai. Today’s aircraft orders reflect that strategy,” he said.
“These additional aircraft will enable Emirates to connect even more cities,” Sheikh Ahmed went on. “[They will] support the Dubai economic agenda D33 set out by HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum to add 400 cities to Dubai’s foreign trade map over the next decade. By the early 2030s, we expect the Emirates fleet to be around 350 strong, connecting Dubai to even more cities around the world.”
The scale of Dubai’s ambition is vast, and it must consequently be matched by the scale of the Emirates orders.
And as dignitary-laden Dubai Airshow press events grab the headlines, behind the scenes Emirates has undertaken a hugely detailed strategic planning exercise to line up not just its fleet, but every other component from people to airports to ensure it can deliver.
Long-term planning
Adnan Kazim, Chief Commercial Officer at Emirates Airline, leads Emirates’ commercial operations across the airline’s network of 160 destinations in 86 countries, and spoke to ARGS about the carrier’s plans at the Dubai show.
“The way we map this company has really been stretched beyond even the five to seven years thinking,” explained Kazim. A critical element of that planning is how long Emirates will continue to operate at Dubai International Airport (DXB), which will run out of capacity at the turn of decade, and when it will transfer its operations to Dubai’s airport of the future – Dubai World Central Al Maktoum International Airport.
The carrier’s growth story both at its current home and when it moves to its new one must be strong and uninterrupted. The initial plan takes into account the continuing operation of Emirates at DXB for the coming few years which includes the government’s ambitions in its D33 vision, explained Kazim.
This includes its network expansion and new routes, product enhancements, the fleet mix, with all elements “catered in phase one for what is happening at DXB. Our focus here would be around up-gauging [of aircraft] and how to address the constraint of DXB in terms of slots, movements and terminal capacity, and how we can cater to that need from now until say the 2030-31-32 timeline,” said Kazim.
“Then we have another plan which is more about how to grow even further,” he continued. The move to Dubai World Central removes any capacity restrictions Emirates has at DXB, and this “will bring in a new mix to the whole fleet requirement”, he noted.
“So, our plan stretches up to, say, 2040 and beyond. That is how we are mapping the growth of the company,” said Kazim.
The move to Dubai World Central
Today, the government has not finalised exactly when the move from DXB to the new Dubai World Central will take place. “It could be anytime beyond 2032,” explained Kazim. “The government is looking [at the timeline] but we don’t know when that will be declared.”
When it does take place, the physical move will be one of the greatest airport logistical projects ever undertaken.
There is no question of Emirates operating a dual hub operation in Dubai, explained Kazim.
A dual hub gets no mileage for two main reasons: “firstly, the distance between the two airports, and secondly, our size and scale in terms of the capacity”, he said. The two airports are nearly 70km apart via downtown, making transfer time lengthy and impractical.
“Plus, you need to look at what’s happening around you. There are many airports in the region, and they are all sitting under a single operation,” he explained. “Once you start then building your network around dual airports you lose the competitive edge,” causing damage to the high-quality, seamless transfer product, with short minimum connecting times, that Emirates has built in Dubai.
“Once you split, then you tend to lose that ground,” said Kazim. “That’s why for us it is critical that we remain all the time [operating on one platform].”
It is also critical to sustain the Emirates widebody aircraft operating model. “We are moving thousands of passengers every day from one end to another [of an airport],” said Kazim, with 70% of the carrier’s travellers on connecting journeys.
“[Our success] depends on how you can make your elapsed time as competitive as what’s happening around you,” said Kazim. “And the more you add to elapsed time, the more you lose ground in terms of convincing the consumer to fly because today it is all about speed and convenience.”
The A380 will be an integral part of the Emirates story right though the transition from DXB and into the Dubai World Central era. It will remain core to Emirates’ growth at least until 2038-40, said Kazim. There is no one-for-one substitute for the A380, more like one-and-a-half aircraft to one A380, so as its seat capacity is replaced the airline’s fleet size will have to grow, he added.
“We have a clear vision of the future in terms of the fleet mix, the network mix that we’re after and the new opportunities that we see,” said Kazim. However, Emirates does differentiate between its planning horizons, one taking into account the more restricted growth possible at DXB and the other where growth is unconstrained as at Dubai World Central.
“For us the choice is to remain under one platform, one airport [DXB], even once the new airport of Dubai will be announced,” said Kazim. Then when the time comes Emirates will shift entirely to Dubai World Central, where it “will relocate and again remain under one platform but with a much bigger scale of operation”.
Workhorse A380
Speaking about the future of the A380 at the Dubai Airshow, Sir Tim Clark, President of Emirates Airline, said the carrier will keep 116 of its total fleet of 123 of the aircraft type in operation for as long as possible, with around 90 still to be flying by the end of the 2030s.
Emirates has signed several maintenance deals with suppliers to ensure it has the capability to keep its A380s in service, and is cannibalising some of the early aircraft and storing parts.
The A380 fleet will decline though as Emirates takes delivery of Boeing 777-9s “unless I can persuade [Airbus] to build another [A380] – I’ve been banging on about it, and each time they consign me to the loony bin”, Clark joked with reporters during a media roundtable.
At the show, Emirates said it would begin taking delivery of the larger 777-9 from 2025 and the 777-8 version of the widebody from 2030.
Network expansion
Kazim is positive about the carrier’s market access. “I would say we have almost 95% of the world under a more flexible approach and we are quite open in terms of anything [relating to market access] that we want to do,” he explained.
Many European points are available to Emirates, with the UK and US markets fully open, said Kazim. “The entire Americas, except Canada, is open for us,” he added, and the airline also has good access in Africa and Asia. In Australia, where Emirates has a joint venture with Qantas, “we’re holding quite a good number of access [points] now and for the future.
“Where we are lacking capacity or facing constraint is in places like India or China, plus France,” said Kazim. In Germany Emirates flies to four cities – Frankfurt, Munich, Dusseldorf, and Hamburg – but “it is definitely our desire to get more access to points such as Berlin and Stuttgart, which would definitely add value to these catchments in terms of getting more direct service.
“Coming from a planning background, I think we have quite a lot of flexibility to manoeuvre, and all these aircraft being delivered have been mapped around what we have,” said Kazim, referring to the smaller Boeing 787 and A350s the airline will begin receiving later this decade.
“They will give us access to many routes that today we’re not able to do because of the capacity of the 777-300ER and 380 – which are too big,” said Kazim. The new aircraft types will enable Emirates to serve more smaller cities.
For example, Emirates has announced it will begin serving Adelaide in Australia with a daily A350 flight from winter 2024. “That is the capability and the flexibility that we’re creating for ourselves [with the new fleet mix],” said Kazim.
“Africa will be one priority that we can explore more and uncover more than the 24 points that we do today,” he added. He views opportunities in Eastern Europe in a similar way, while there are also many destinations in the Americas with medium-sized demand that will come on the radar.
“In the US today, we cover 12 points with good [market] penetration and good cooperation with United,” noted Kazim. “But can we do more? For medium-sized aircraft the answer is yes. There are still many opportunities to enter the US market.
“We haven’t yet entered the Latin American market and that will be another area we’re considering as part of our expansion plans,” said Kazim.
The Emirates growth story will see increased frequencies in addition to brand new destinations. Kazim highlighted Los Angeles as a good example. This market size suits a daily A380 service, but when Emirates experimented with a second A380 flight it did not work, he explained. But a second frequency with a smaller A350 is an option that could work, and there are several markets where this approach will be applied.
A planner’s dream
“Any planner would be dreaming to have that kind of a mix between an A380 to a 777X to a 777-300ER to the A350s and 787s. You really have everything, and you can penetrate any market at any given time. Nothing will hold you back,” said Kazim. Plus: “The risk is not high in terms of the flexibility we can create for ourselves as we go forward.”
One of the intriguing aspects of the Emirates order announcement at the Dubai Airshow was the order for 30 787-9s for flydubai.
Up to this point, this carrier has operated exclusively single-aisle Boeing 737s on a regional network launched in 2009 from its DXB hub. It began some services at Dubai World Central in 2015. flydubai was formed by the government of Dubai with start-up assistance from Emirates, but operated independently from Emirates until 2017 when the two airlines entered a partnership.
“Back in 2017 I was part of the team working very closely with Ghaith [flydubai CEO Ghaith Al Ghaith is a veteran of Emirates] under direction from His Highness Sheikh Ahmed to bring the two airlines together in terms of network coordination and revenue optimisation,” said Kazim.
There have also been moves to make traveller journeys more seamless between the terminals at DXB where Emirates and flydubai operate. The partnership has extended further to the onboard product where passengers flying on flydubai with an Emirates ticket receive a full meal.
Customer experience
“The aim is that the customer experience is not too different between the two [airlines],” said Kazim. “We are now in a very healthy position in terms of connectivity, in terms of the routes they fly and the routes we fly and how we can do things in a very coordinated manner.”
Where they do serve the same route, flydubai’s 737 flights are timed to complement an Emirates 777 operating at a different time to provide more feed at DXB to Emirates.
Passenger numbers have “ramped up tremendously and we have created a lot of bottom-line revenue for both companies”, said Kazim.
The partnership will add another dimension when flydubai starts taking 787s from 2026. At the Dubai show, HH Sheikh Ahmed said the airline’s first foray into widebody operations “signifies the maturing of flydubai”.
The flydubai order for 787s “signals a new chapter for the airline, building on the success of its strong business model”, said HH Sheikh Ahmed. It currently operates over 80 737 single-aisles.
flydubai will continue to focus on connecting “previously under-served markets from Dubai” and will “expand the horizons for the carrier as well as adding more capacity on existing routes”, said HH Sheikh Ahmed.
As the new 787 fleet arrives Kazim is sure they will “add more value for flydubai to penetrate new markets, including long-haul routes”.
The Government’s D33 vision talks about 400 routes beyond 2030 being served from Dubai and flydubai’s expanding fleet will address some of this requirement. “Some will be covered by flydubai. Some will be covered by us [Emirates] but combining the two is where the benefit will come… It’s good for Dubai,” said Kazim.
